Is a Bitcoin Spot ETF Coming? Expert Gives it a 50-50 Chance

Bitcoin's price could greatly depend on whether the U.S. will allow a Bitcoin spot ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund). Joe Carlasare, a lawyer supporting Bitcoin, thinks this only has a 30-40% chance of happening within a year.

Carlasare sees the best chance for a Bitcoin spot ETF in a lawsuit by Grayscale against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Grayscale, the biggest Bitcoin fund globally, sued the SEC for rejecting its ETF application unfairly. Even though some experts predict a 70% chance of Grayscale winning, Carlasare is less hopeful. He warns that even if Grayscale wins, it doesn't mean a Bitcoin spot ETF will happen.

According to Carlasare, the court could simply ask the SEC to rethink its decision, which could end with the same result. So far, all similar products were rejected after a SEC review.

BlackRock, the biggest asset manager in the world, has also filed for a Bitcoin spot ETF. BlackRock and Fidelity were told by the SEC to mention a specific Bitcoin exchange for a surveillance sharing agreement (SSA). Both have now said they will use Coinbase for this.

However, Carlasare is worried that Coinbase, although the biggest Bitcoin exchange in the U.S., is not big enough for the SEC. He explained that the SEC wants an exchange so big that anyone trying to mess with the Bitcoin spot market would need to use it. As most Bitcoin spot trading happens outside the U.S., this might be a problem.

In conclusion, Carlasare believes Grayscale has a 50% chance of winning its lawsuit and Coinbase a 40% chance of getting BlackRock's ETF approved. He thinks these chances are quite hopeful.