VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Growth Under Harris or Trump in 2024

VanEck, an asset management firm, recently analyzed the potential impact of the 2024 US Presidential election on Bitcoin and concluded that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump could bring positive outcomes for the digital currency. According to the firm, both candidates, though different in their approaches, are likely to create favorable conditions for Bitcoin’s growth.

In a report from September 19, VanEck pointed out that under a Harris presidency, Bitcoin adoption might accelerate due to structural challenges and clearer regulations. This could help Bitcoin gain an edge over other digital currencies. Despite concerns about stricter regulations under Gary Gensler or figures like Elizabeth Warren, VanEck suggests that the potential economic policies of a Harris administration might still benefit Bitcoin.

On the other hand, VanEck believes that a Trump presidency would also boost the broader crypto industry, as Trump’s administration could focus on deregulation and pro-business policies, which would ease the regulatory burden on crypto businesses. Crypto stakeholders generally support a Trump presidency due to his positive stance on cryptocurrencies.

VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, emphasized on X (formerly Twitter) that either candidate would likely continue fiscal policies that might lead to increased quantitative easing, which historically benefits Bitcoin. This would likely continue the trend of weakening the US dollar, creating a macroeconomic environment where Bitcoin tends to perform well.

In addition to election outcomes, VanEck has noticed a significant rise in institutional interest in Bitcoin over the last year. Trading volumes for Bitcoin increased by 173%, and US dollar-based Bitcoin transfers grew by 202%. This uptick in institutional activity has been driven by the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the US, which have seen $18 billion in inflows since January.

VanEck also pointed out that countries like Kenya, Ethiopia, and Argentina have started mining Bitcoin, which increases sovereign and institutional involvement with the digital asset. This trend is seen as part of a global shift towards de-dollarization, where Bitcoin is becoming more significant in international transactions and as a potential global reserve asset.

With rising institutional adoption and growing government participation in Bitcoin mining, VanEck believes that Bitcoin is well-positioned for further expansion, regardless of who wins the 2024 election.