Polymarket Under Fire as Whale Dumps Millions in Trump Bets
Polymarket faces scrutiny after crypto whale dumps millions in Trump bets, raising questions about the accuracy of its US election odds.
The US election betting market on Polymarket, valued at over a billion dollars, is under scrutiny as concerns arise over the accuracy of its odds. A prominent Polymarket whale known as "larpas" recently sold off more than $3 million in bets favoring Donald Trump’s victory, an action that reportedly influenced the platform’s odds. This sell-off came shortly after well-known crypto trader Giant-Cassocked Rebirth (GCR) hinted at flaws in the prediction markets’ accuracy, suggesting that the odds may overestimate the chances of right-wing candidates.
New data from blockchain analysis firm Arkham Intelligence reveals that larpas, a key player on Polymarket, liquidated millions in pro-Trump election bets, affecting Polymarket’s odds just as election day approaches. This sell-off began following GCR’s statements, where he claimed to have manipulated Polymarket’s odds by identifying a bias in the market’s assessment of right-wing candidates. GCR’s move aligns with previous speculation about his involvement in pro-Trump meme coin trading.
GCR, known for his strategic insights, stated in 2021 that he believed prediction markets were skewed toward right-wing outcomes. He anticipated that the implied odds of a Republican nominee would eventually rise, making Trump a valuable bet when odds were low. By exploiting this perceived bias, he profited from the shift in Trump’s odds, stating that he captured “the meat of the move” before taking his profit. He advised followers to avoid leverage and risky bets.
The ongoing 2024 election has drawn massive volumes on Polymarket, which has become a key platform for political betting. Robinhood has even added election betting as the race enters its final days, showing just how significant the betting interest is. As the US electorate becomes more engaged in crypto, the presence of digital assets in election betting is more prominent than ever.
However, the excitement around prediction markets hasn’t led to reliable odds. Recent research suggests Trump’s odds on Polymarket are inflated, with as much as 30% of pro-Trump trades deemed to be false. Whale accounts, like that of larpas, may be pushing these odds higher. With the election imminent, more traders could potentially profit from exploiting prediction market biases, following in GCR’s footsteps.
