Bitcoin Dominance Rises, Dimming Hopes for Altcoin Season

As the U.S. Presidential Election nears, Bitcoin's (BTC) dominance over the crypto market is strengthening, casting doubt on a potential altcoin season. Bitcoin’s market share, measured by BTC.D, has risen to its highest level since 2021, indicating that investors are favoring BTC over other cryptocurrencies. This trend is fueled by growing interest in Bitcoin ETFs, which have seen significant capital inflows, further boosting Bitcoin’s standing.

Bitcoin dominance measures the share of Bitcoin’s market cap relative to all cryptocurrencies. Currently, BTC.D shows a bullish momentum, with the MACD indicator reflecting Bitcoin's increasing strength over altcoins. When Bitcoin’s dominance rises, it often signals limited growth opportunities for other cryptocurrencies in the short term.

A recent report by 10X Research suggests that this ETF-driven demand could push Bitcoin prices higher by early 2025 if the trend continues. In October alone, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded billions in purchases, the highest monthly volume since earlier in the year. With investor interest rising, BTC is set to benefit as its demand accelerates.

In contrast, the altcoin market has remained relatively stagnant. TOTAL2, which tracks the combined market cap of all cryptos except Bitcoin, has been consolidating within a narrow range, reflecting reduced trading activity and investor caution. This sideways movement indicates that investors are more hesitant about altcoin performance, which has further delayed any signs of an altcoin season.

For an official altcoin season, at least 75% of the top 50 altcoins must outperform Bitcoin over a three-month period. Recent data from Blockchain Center reveals that only 29% of top altcoins have managed to surpass BTC’s growth, far below the needed threshold. This underperformance suggests that the market remains strongly in Bitcoin's favor, as investors continue prioritizing it over altcoins amid election buzz and ETF momentum.