Most Airdrop Tokens Crash Within Days, Study Shows

A recent report by KeyRock reveals that most airdrop tokens lose value within the first 15 days of being listed, with 88.7% of tokens showing price drops after 90 days. The study, which analyzed 62 airdrops across six different blockchain networks in 2024, highlights the challenges facing this popular token distribution strategy. Ethereum and Solana tokens proved more resilient, with up to 25% maintaining or increasing in value after three months, while other networks like BNB, Arbitrum, and ZkSync saw no positive outcomes.

Crypto airdrops, which have been widely used since 2017 to build early interest in new projects, are showing signs of strain. While these campaigns often create excitement at launch, many tokens fail to maintain their value or hold the community's interest. KeyRock’s data shows that most of the price movement happens early on, with only a few tokens remaining stable or increasing in value after 90 days. The oversaturation of airdrops has made it harder for projects to maintain user engagement, often leading to abandonment.

While the overall picture looks negative, results vary between different blockchains. Ethereum and Solana fared better than most, with Solana's 25% success rate attributed to its growing, active community. On the other hand, networks like Starknet and Merlin had no successful airdrops, showing that network choice and user base characteristics strongly influence token performance.

One of the key findings of the report is that larger airdrops—where more than 10% of the total token supply is distributed—tend to outperform smaller ones in the long term. These larger distributions help build a stronger sense of community ownership, which supports long-term stability and reduces price fluctuations. Smaller airdrops, though initially promising, usually suffer significant price drops within three months. This suggests that while scarcity can help in the short term, it may lead to price corrections as insiders sell off their holdings.

Medium-sized airdrops, where 5% to 10% of the tokens are distributed, struck a balance between short-term performance and long-term viability. Larger airdrops, however, were found to be the most effective at fostering community engagement and maintaining value over time.

In conclusion, the report shows that while airdrops remain a popular tool, their effectiveness is becoming more unpredictable. The success of an airdrop largely depends on the size of the distribution, the blockchain network, and the engagement of the community. As KeyRock noted, "generous airdrops seem to cultivate a more committed user base", which is key to maintaining token value in the long run.