Japan’s 30-year yield nears 3.3%, threatening a global carry unwind

Japan’s 30-year yield near 3.3% signals the carry era fading and a tighter global liquidity regime emerging.

Japan’s 30-year government bond yield is around the low-to-mid 3s, a clear break from the zero-rate era. The move follows policy normalization and the end of yield-curve control, allowing long-dated term premiums to rebuild.

From anchor to transmitter
For decades, cheap yen funding underwrote global carry trades and muted volatility. Higher domestic yields weaken that anchor. As incentives to keep capital abroad fade, repatriation pressure can build and global liquidity can thin.

What to watch
Persistence of elevated long-bond prints, central-bank balance-sheet guidance, and updates to Japan’s external position. Sustained pressure at the long end would raise the odds of broader cross-asset volatility.