Dollar Stablecoins Open the Dollar Door but Speed the Exit, IMF Finds

IMF paper ties stablecoins to currency fragility

A new working paper from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) argues that dollar stablecoins carry two opposing effects for economies with fixed or tightly managed exchange rates. Economist Brandon Joel Tan finds the tokens can widen access to US dollars in places where official channels ration them. The same paper warns they can also amplify runs on a local currency once exchange-rate pressure builds. The study, titled "Stablecoins and Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," models the parallel foreign-exchange markets that form when banks and official windows cannot meet dollar demand. In that setting, stablecoins act as an extra route for residents to obtain dollar exposure.

Visible token prices can coordinate mass exits

The paper describes a clear channel of risk. Dollar stablecoins make dollar-like claims easier to hold, and they attach a visible, high-frequency price to dollar demand. That public price can work as a shared signal for households and firms when an official rate drifts far from the market rate. During a currency crisis, the same widely watched token price could push many residents to abandon the local currency at the same time. To limit that pressure, Tan suggests regulators may need temporary caps on transactions during panic-driven activity.

Bolivia and Argentina already show the pattern

Real cases sit behind the model. On 9 June 2025, some retailers at a Bolivian airport priced goods against a USDT reference while still accepting US dollars or bolivianos. In Argentina during 2024, informal networks exchanged pesos for dollar-pegged tokens at rates closer to the unofficial market. Both examples show residents turning to stablecoins to reach dollar value when currency controls restrict formal access. The paper uses these episodes to ground its argument in behaviour that is already visible on the ground.

Tether trades at its peg during the debate

Tether (USDT) is the token named in the Bolivian example. USDT traded at $0.9994 at the time of publication, holding close to its dollar peg over the past 24 hours (CoinPaprika, 11 July 2026). Its market value stood near $184.2 billion, which ranks it among the largest crypto assets by size. That scale is part of what makes policymakers watch cross-border stablecoin use so closely, since flows large enough to move a small economy can build quickly.

FSB raised similar concerns in March

The IMF paper follows a warning from the Financial Stability Board (FSB). In its 2025 annual report, released on 24 March 2026, the FSB said cross-border use of dollar stablecoins poses a "more acute" risk for emerging-market and developing economies. It listed currency substitution, weaker monetary policy, and the circumvention of capital-flow measures among its main concerns. The two bodies point to the same tension. Stablecoins can hand savers a faster path to dollars, while leaving governments with thinner control over their own currency.

Policymakers weigh limits on stablecoin flows

The paper does not call for a ban. Instead, it frames the question as one of timing and design. In calm periods, stablecoins can deepen a shallow dollar market and help residents smooth trade and savings. In stressed periods, the same tokens can speed the flight from a weak currency, which is when temporary transaction limits may help. Tan argues the policy answer depends on the state of the market rather than a fixed rule that applies at all times. For central banks in fixed-rate systems, that means watching stablecoin prices as an early gauge of pressure on the peg.