CLARITY Act's 2026 Odds Collapse to 10% as the Senate Clock Runs Down

Galaxy cut CLARITY Act 2026 passage odds to 10%

On 15 August, Galaxy Digital lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act passing Congress this year to 10%. Alex Thorn, Galaxy's head of firmwide research, had set the previous figure at 50%. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would create a federal framework that splits oversight of crypto markets between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The industry has treated the bill as its main legislative goal in Washington this year.

A narrow Senate calendar drives the downgrade

Thorn tied the cut to timing. The Senate reconvenes on 14 September and has only two to three weeks of floor time before other priorities crowd the schedule. He said the bill could clear the Senate in that window only if it took over almost the full session. Unless senators move an early motion to proceed, the calendar leaves little room for a full debate.

The bill would have enough time to pass only if it "dominates basically the entire working session", 15 August 2026. — Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research, Galaxy Digital

The odds fell in steps since May

Galaxy has trimmed the number repeatedly through the year. It cut the estimate from 75% to 60% on 6 June, then to 50% on 26 June, before the drop to 10% on 15 August. More than 200 crypto companies urged the Senate to pass the bill in early June, but the schedule kept slipping.

Ethics rules and stablecoin yield remain unresolved

The Senate Banking Committee cleared the bill in a 15-9 bipartisan vote in May, after four months of holdups in committee. Two Democrats joined Republicans, yet several sticking points survived the markup. Lawmakers still dispute ethics rules for government officials and a provision that bars yield on payment stablecoins. The American Bankers Association argues the yield language could pull deposits out of the banking system and wants it tightened. Some Democrats, led by Senator Elizabeth Warren, oppose the bill outright.

Several procedural steps still stand in the way

Committee approval does not send the bill to the president. The measure must first merge with a version approved by the Senate Agriculture Committee. It then needs 60 votes to clear a Senate floor vote, a threshold that depends on wider Democratic support. Any Senate-passed text must also be reconciled with the House CLARITY Act, which the House passed in July 2025. Each stage adds time that the September calendar may not allow.

Bitcoin held near 63,600 dollars at publication

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $63,576 on 17 August, up 0.87% over the past 24 hours and down 1.74% over the prior seven days (CoinPaprika, 17 August 2026). Its market value stood near $1.28 trillion. The regulatory delay landed as traders weighed the timeline for clearer U.S. crypto rules.